Actual Trading – Market Update
April 12th, 2019
Actual Trading Announces Revised Crypto Targets at 4pm ET on April 12th, 2019.
We have moved from short term bearish and medium term bullish crypto to short and medium term neutral.
The move down from BTC 5,450 and ETH 186, down to 5,000 and 160 – with exchange specific spikes lower — moves of 8-13% respectively, take us to levels where we have closed all short positions.
We have in fact begun accumulating long positions but stand at only 10-15% long assets at the 5,010 – 5,040 and 161-164 levels. We see substantial selling interest in crypto and are buying conservatively to recognize the possibility of another push lower. We see the possibility of a more extended move lower given the rapidity of the initial trade down which did not allow position liquidations. The weekend presents additional liquidity concerns and vulnerability to both the downside and upside. Given this abrupt move lower, we have curbed our enthusiasm temporarily and moved from medium term bullish to neutral in order to let market prices find their levels. Our goal is to gravitate towards 50% long as we hold these levels and trade slightly lower, perhaps 1-2% below these recent lows. We would then allow for a more substantial move to 3,900 – 4,400 and 139-144, levels breached by the April 1 break higher, where we would move to 80% long. We are short- and medium-term neutral at these levels, looking to trade from the long side given our longer term upward bias. Our position size is very small because of risk that market participants may try to push prices lower or higher. Our goal is to fade those moves but not get too involved in middle of daily trading ranges. We think the next few days could bring attempts to push prices decisively, but that those moves will then be met by opposing sellers/buyers to moderate initial moves. The sharp moves have just happened. We anticipate some consolidation as traders get frustrated and look to create more extensive moves.
David Reich | Head of Actual Trading
DISCLOSURES: This Commentary is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, any type of recommendation or an offer to sell or a solicitation to purchase any securities from the Actual Trading or an entity organized, controlled, managed by or affiliated with Actual Group, LLC (“Actual Group”). Any offer or solicitation may only be made pursuant to a confidential private offering memorandum which will only be provided to qualified offerees for careful review prior to making an investment decision. We aim to educate, report and/or opine on certain developments relating to the digital asset market. These are our subjective views, based on information and sources we believe to be reliable as of the date we publish, but we make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy, correctness or completeness of our opinions or any information herein and have no undertaking to update it. Please do not rely on it.
Actual Group and/or its affiliates and personnel have made investments in some of the assets or instruments discussed here, and may in the future make additional investments (long or short) in such assets or instruments without further notice. Actual Group does not, here or anywhere, provide accounting, legal or tax advice, or make investment recommendations. Please do not rely on us for the foregoing. We strongly suggest that prospective investors seek independent advice with respect to any investment, financial, legal, tax, accounting or regulatory issues discussed herein. Certain information contained in this Commentary constitutes “forward-looking statements,” such as statements that include the words“may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “target,” “project,” “estimate,” “intend,” “believe”. There are so many risks and uncertainties that actual events or results or the actual policies, procedures, and processes of Actual Group and the Actual Trading and the performance of the Actual Trading may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Please do not rely on forward-looking statements. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of or a guarantee of future results.