Actual Trading – Market Update
April 25th, 2019
Actual Trading Announces Crypto Targets at 11:30 pm ET on April 25th, 2019.
We have moved from long term bullish to neutral.
The NY Attorney General allegation about USDT attempting to deceitfully bail out Bitfinex is problematic for cryptocurrency. The early simple interpretation is that Bitfinex is potentially insolvent — a problem for all crypto — and that USDT 1:1 backing that now includes receivables in addition to USD, might be receivables that are non-existent.
USDT is now bouncing over 97,50 after recovering from 95,50. We see this as a sell. The uncertainty caps its value, and even pre-bad news, USDT was fighting to hold just over 1:1. We do not see it above 97,50-98,00. While selling BTC and, moreover ETH, are not terrible ideas v USD and we are neutral to that trade, we would not sell them v USDT. This creates a scenario where BTC and ETH might hold steady with a slight downward bias v. USD and BTC and ETH might have an upward bias v. USDT. The danger is not just in terms of P/L, but rather that dire USDT news makes it impossible to cover BTC and ETH shorts.
David Reich | Head of Actual Trading
DISCLOSURES: This Commentary is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, any type of recommendation or an offer to sell or a solicitation to purchase any securities from the Actual Trading or an entity organized, controlled, managed by or affiliated with Actual Group, LLC (“Actual Group”). Any offer or solicitation may only be made pursuant to a confidential private offering memorandum which will only be provided to qualified offerees for careful review prior to making an investment decision. We aim to educate, report and/or opine on certain developments relating to the digital asset market. These are our subjective views, based on information and sources we believe to be reliable as of the date we publish, but we make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy, correctness or completeness of our opinions or any information herein and have no undertaking to update it. Please do not rely on it.
Actual Group and/or its affiliates and personnel have made investments in some of the assets or instruments discussed here, and may in the future make additional investments (long or short) in such assets or instruments without further notice. Actual Group does not, here or anywhere, provide accounting, legal or tax advice, or make investment recommendations. Please do not rely on us for the foregoing. We strongly suggest that prospective investors seek independent advice with respect to any investment, financial, legal, tax, accounting or regulatory issues discussed herein. Certain information contained in this Commentary constitutes “forward-looking statements,” such as statements that include the words“may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “target,” “project,” “estimate,” “intend,” “believe”. There are so many risks and uncertainties that actual events or results or the actual policies, procedures, and processes of Actual Group and the Actual Trading and the performance of the Actual Trading may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Please do not rely on forward-looking statements. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of or a guarantee of future results.